Region braces for Hurricane Irene

Image: Potential 5-day path of Hurricane Irene and associated storms. From NOAA.

It will most likely be a few days til the worst of the storms associated with Hurricane Irene hit upstate New York, but emergency responders are already preparing. We got this release tonight from Art Snyder, director of emergency communications for Ulster County:

We've all been watching Irene develop over the last few days, and we will continue to watch her over the next few. It is certainly not too early to make preparations, even though the exact track of the storm is yet to be determined. Here are some relevant points to consider:

Current local conditions:

Our rainfall total for August is already more than 1 1/2 inches greater than in the historical normal for August.

The overall level of the NYC reservoir system is about 9% above normal for this time of year. Currently the Ashokan is at 94% of capacity and the Rondout is at 97% of capacity.

Forecast:

On Thursday we are looking for an additional 1/2" of rain (more in thunderstorms). This will add to the already high August rainfall total. For most of the day models were taking the track of the storm slightly off the coast (the farther off shore the less impact on inland areas like Ulster). However, the latest models are moving the storm slightly westward. This will be a moving target throughout the event. The exact track will determine the amount of rainfall and severity of the winds. Keep in mind the most severe winds are found in the northeast quadrant of a hurricane.

The National Weather Service office in Albany warns of a potential 5" of rain in the eastern areas of their coverage area (the far eastern region for them is Litchfield Connecticut). NWS Binghamton warns the greatest impact for their region will be the Poconos and Catskills. NWS Upton is deferring to the National Hurricane Center which hasn't projected storm totals for our area yet.

Flooding and power outages are the most likely hazards we will be faced with.

Storm preparations & Tips:
  Subscribe to NY Alert (www.NYALERT.gov) to get the latest watches and
  warnings direct from the National Weather Service.
  Have a family disaster plan.
  Be especially conscious to look out for the elderly, disabled and
  children.
  Have a plan for your pets (pets are not allowed in general population
  shelters).
  Be prepared for extended power outages. Have a supply of batteries, a
  battery operated radio, and flashlights (avoid the use of candles
  whenever possible due to the fire hazard).
  Have enough potable water for each person (one gallon per person, per
  day).
  Have a quantity of nonperishable food (and a manual can opener).
  Have a first aid kit and extra medications on hand.
  Have a small quantity of cash on hand in case ATM machines are without
  power.
  Heed all official warnings including orders to evacuate.
  Never drive through flooded roadways - Turn Around, Don't Drown!
  Consider all down wires to be energized.
  Never run a generator or charcoal cooking appliance indoors (great
  danger of carbon monoxide poisoning).
  The Red Cross is developing sheltering plans that will be finalized as
  the exact strike area is more clearly identified. Please keep in mind
  the wide area of impact will affect the availability of all resources -
  Red Cross, utilities, etc.

 Follow the advice of ready.gov - Get a Kit, Make a Plan, Be Informed.

The caveat, as all forecasters will say, is the exact track of the storm may very well change over the next few days which will affect the amount of precipitation and the strength of the winds. Another update will be provided tomorrow.

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection announced today that they are releasing more water than usual from the reservoirs, in anticipation of heavy rains and high reservoir levels:

Based on the potential impacts that Hurricane Irene may have on the reservoir system, DEP has increased the water release rates from the Neversink and Pepacton reservoirs. The increased releases enhance the reservoirs’ ability to absorb storm inflow and are provided for in the Flexible Flow Management Plan that went into effect on June 1, 2011. The plan is intended to provide a more adaptive means for managing the Cannonsville, Pepacton, and Neversink reservoirs. We will continue higher releases as needed and began releasing water at both reservoirs yesterday at approximately 3 pm. At Pepacton, we are now releasing approximately 453 million gallons a day; and at Neversink we are releasing approximately 123 million gallons of water a day—both rates are the maximum rates for each reservoir permitted under the plan.

Releasing more water now will create more storage capacity in these reservoirs to capture storm runoff, which will help to minimize any potential negative impacts on the surrounding community or to drinking water quality. The releases are made possible in part because of DEP’s multi-million dollar investment in the new Operations Support Tool, a high-tech computer application which allows DEP to better predict reservoir-specific water storage levels, quality, and inflows. The Operations Support Tool gives a level of certainty that was not previously possible about when it is safe to release water without depleting the water supply of nine million New Yorkers.